Wild Speculation with FilmBook
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Wild Speculation with FilmBook
Elite Ape Coins for gated access, planet tokens = land, the rarest general release PV NFT, and a $10B valuation?!
This is MetaVault, the best way to keep up with the Pixel Vault universe: PUNKS Comic, MetaHero, United Planets, $PUNKS, $POW, and lots of DAOs.
Before jumping into the post, a quick reminder that I launched the MetaVault podcast with my co-host, Brad Barrett. Every week we dive into the latest alpha and project dynamics with frens from the company and community. And remember, you can always find me on Twitter and via email.
I met FilmBook a few months back on the Pixel Vault Discord. He had some super interesting ideas about future utility for Punks Comic #2: $APE coins, burn mechanics for MP #3, and Elite Apes as characters in the MetaHero game. He’s one of the most thoughtful PV collectors I’ve met. Constantly looking for angles, why the project is doing what it’s doing today, and where it might go next.
We got into a great conversation the other day and I just had to share with the community. The following is a lightly edited copy pasta from a Twitter DM thread last weekend (published with FilmBook’s permission).
WARNING: This is joyously wild speculation, nothing more. Not financial advice. I won’t say “DYOR” because this doesn’t even represent our view on what the company should do. It’s just two people acting like fantasy football owners, most likely starting the wrong running back again.
FilmBook (FB): Any theories on if you think the Elite Apes comic 2 versions will sell at a premium?
SpaceWalk (SW): I think they’ll sell at a premium, mostly because of how the Elite Apes intend to use them. If Tropo wants to use it as a special pass into his platform, that’d be huge. Plus, PV will figure out a way to make them even more exciting. GFunk talked about burning possibilities.
I picked up a couple and might buy another one or two.
FB: I agree. Think both the Tropo SEs and the Ape Coins in general will be useful for him. And I just keep thinking about the Ape Coin minters. BAYC/MAYC/PV owners. Is there a more attractive group of wallets that you would want to try and continue to engage and build with?
SW: Exactly. Abraham had an interesting take on the pod: he values “ownership” in the PV eco. Doesn’t see the coins as ownership. Fun way to participate in the culture, but not a long-term asset. Which is probably right. But culture is huge right now. I’m thinking this is a way to benefit off of those massive communities.
FB: Yeah “ownership” is dicey when referencing all PV assets right now. I agree, they’re not ownership. A bet on culture.
I agree more with you, and Tropo/Ape Coins bit. I think they hold the highest near/mid upside of any PV asset because of the unknown Ape dynamics. Really, a bet on Tropo and whether this could be the official start of a platform/project.
SW: Yep. Bottom line, what’s the “cheapest” PV asset?
FB: There’s an opportunity to convert winning coins into a likely more valuable asset, and then with only ~12K left after burn, that’s still a relatively manageable amount in a very committed population so I actually don’t see price dropping.
SW: Everyone is/will be looking for exposure to BAYC and PV.
FB: You had a very interesting thought [on your first pod]: is $POW the PVDAO token? [NOTE: I wrote about this topic on Monday] I haven’t bought any liquid $POW yet. Also, I believe GFunk has mentioned a few times that if PV does DAO, all holders will get a little dispersal of tokens. At least Genesis set, Planets, Comic 2, likely Mint Pass 2, and Sidekicks.
I wonder if PV counts Ape Coins as actual PV assets for gating access going forward? It seems they will, since it was their coin for their holders representing their project?
SW: I could see them distributing $POW to the community of holders based on assets owned + length of time. I think all assets will count.
FB: Yeah I could see that. Probably still want to make a fair amount earn-able to new users in the game.
I’m going to start a campaign to get the 6 month anniversary POAP added to the “official” list of assets. Super fair, free distribution to only PV believers/super fans investing their time in the project. One of the most rare PV assets. And before PV truly blew up. Also POAPs are useless 99.9% of the time. As consistent innovators, why can’t PV be the ones to finally add value and utility to these, and encourage people to create a market? Ha! It’s a pipe dream and as a holder I’m biased, but maybe there’s something there?
Likely me talking into the void.
SW: Not sure about that one, but it’s a great idea!
FB: Ha, yeah the places the mind goes. The other thing I’ve been thinking about is: How else do they keep Planet holders engaged and drive value while building the game? Mint Pass 2, Sidekicks, and the interim game will likely get the current holders to be excited and stay engaged for ~6 months. So we’re in late summer. How do they keep Planet holders engaged and value up? Is Mercury already voting on governance, land dispersal, resource allocation etc… while the game is still not built/demo-ing?
I assume PV will incentivize staking of planets at some point. It makes too much sense given the sheer amount of volume of tokens, needs to maintain value/active secondary, and sizable investment minters made.
SW: Planets = land. That’s my wild speculation! Ha. Potentially burning tokens to stack resource-rich land. Look Labs has the idea of stacking land to make better weed. Same concept here, minus the weed! Ha.
It’s a good question though. In fact, I have this crazy idea that they pivot away from AAA game altogether. If the staking game is as big as Axie, isn’t that a massive success? Why invest 100s of millions in a AAA game when you already have a hugely successful gamified staking game? Plus, last thing: What if the gamified staking game looks cool? Wait, didn’t you have that idea? Did I just steal your idea?!
FB: I have no idea if that was my mine! When I’m on one, I barely remember what I say one second to the next!
I feel like Land will ultimately be decided by each Planet DAO. Meaning how many parcels? How many dropped to token holders? How many available for the new buyers once unsold planets are released? How many are available to non-planet token holders that just want to come and own a piece of your planet? And then maybe resources randomized? They say land will be Planet DAO-controlled, or something like that, on the plants website. Now burning tokens to stack resource rich land: that’s super interesting. I like the LL idea as well. Maybe burn tokens so you can get buildings? Shuttle services or pipelines back and forth from planets to move people/resources?
Crazy fun idea that they pivot from AAA game altogether: hadn’t considered that at all! If staking game is massively successful, that’s going to present a ton of questions. But broader, is a AAA game the best use of the UPDAO treasury dollars? I have to feel that the Blizzard acquisition has only strengthened their resolve to have a big game that’s easily accessible to the broader public.
I think where this gets me, is we still have a lot of time where they can engage the future planets and all that they encompass, without actually having a game (other than interim staking game).
Additionally, I’m starting to think a lot about the soccer team and how PV will integrate that into their universe and NFT world in general. If they can move fan interaction/integration significantly forward as a model, anything under 10 billion valuation is a deal.
SW: So that valuation number is really interesting. Let’s say they announce this week a VC round at $1B (NOTE: PV announced funding, but didn’t announce a valuation). How long before they’re $10B? This kind of stuff can happen fast. The real question would become, when would the team (and VC backers) want to cash out. I’d say a 10x return is good, but not earth shattering for the big VCs. I don’t think they get to anything close to that without a very good interim game.
I listened to Virtunaut’s interview with Schiller. Interesting conversation about look and feel of the game. While I think most of it was about the AAA game, some of it sounded like a reference to the interim game. Would there be any way to make that kind of lo-fi game feel like a PV-designed environment? Could someone see a snippet of game play on Twitter and immediately understand it was from the PV game? That’s what interests me about LL. They’re 3D models look different than Wolf Game, Axie, and the recent BAYC game. Could PV do a comic book-esque design?
FB: Agreed, valuation can move very fast, especially when you already have a proven profitable business model and upside potentially in the stratosphere across multiple industries. I haven’t thought a ton about exit, good question. Has to be mechanisms in place preventing a massive exit if equity is provided in actual PV assets of $POW or something.
You think interim game makes that big of a difference? Are you thinking that VC is banking on PV driven by the AAA game?
SW: I don’t think VC is driven by the AAA game. They have no one in-house who has delivered a massively successful AAA game. If anything, I could see the VC money being used to hire someone to lead the AAA game execution. But, just duplicating Axie’s success would be a huge win. And the game play and graphics there aren’t earth shattering. Do I think the MetaHero universe would present a more compelling, broader draw for gamers than that? Yes! Absolutely.
Take the idea that Mercury will be the first planet ready for gaming. Imagine that in 6 months, the first place we can all play the interim game is on Mercury. Mercury holders get a 2% tax for all transactions. Maybe this is the first place you can buy stuff. It becomes the “marketplace” for the universe. Venus comes online 3 months later and is where you go to do X. Then Earth, and so on.
If I had liquidity, I’d be all over Mercury right now. It has to see increased profit in the interim game. In fact I’ve thought about selling extra planets to get up to a Mercury. Just hard to pass up on a MP#2.
FB: I love that idea of the “look and feel” of interim game and if it will be clearly PV. I would love a “comic” style game, interim or AAA. That would feel really cool. I wonder if they can put something like that together for interim game. I also wonder if interim game is it’s own thing, or essentially the first chapter of AAA game and your resources, status, whatever come with you, and are rolled into larger game?
I like your take on Mercury. I’d been thinking further out on real utility for the planets and their actual long term use case. It’s a fun thought. I’d been assuming interim game will only involve genesis PV assets and sidekicks/MP2. But if planets are involved, especially with special benefits for certain planets, that’s way more fun.
Kind of fun, right?!
And that concludes Wild Speculation with FilmBook Round 1! Our back-and-forth ended kind of abruptly, most likely due to one of my daughters jumping on my back and asking for well-deserved attention. I’ll do more of these sessions with him and others. Getting voices from the community into the newsletter is a 2022 goal of mine. Your perspective, whether brand new to the project or a grizzled veteran, brings new ways to engage with this amazing company as they grow and evolve.
Some Disclaimers: None of this is financial advice. DYOR. And yes, I’m obviously a PV collector and long-term hodlr. Not a whale by any measure (maybe a squid?).